An Unusually Powerful Water-Maser Flare in the Galactic Source W49N     

Volvach  L. N.  Volvach  A. E.  Larionov  M. G.  Wolak  P.  Kramer  B.  Menten  K.  Kraus  A.  Brand  J.  Zanichelli  A.  Poppi  S.  Rigini  S.  Ipatov  A. V.  Ivanov  D. V.  Mikhailov  A. G.  Mel’nikov  A. 《Astronomy Reports》2019,63(8):652-665

The most powerful flare ever registered in the Galactic water-maser source W49N has been detected in long-term monitoring data in the 6₁₆–5₂₃ transition with line frequency f = 22.235 GHz carried out on the 22-m Simeiz, 32-m Toruń, 100-m Effelsberg, and 32-m Medicina radio telescopes, beginning in September 2017 and continuing in 2018. Some stages of the flare were monitored daily. Detailed variations of the source spectral flux density with time have been obtained. At the flare maximum, the flux exceeded P ≈ 8 × 10⁴ Jy, and this was record highest flux registered over the entire history of observations of this source. Important conclusions related to details of the mechanism for the H₂O line emission have been drawn. An exponential increase in the flare flux density was detected during both the rise and decline of the flare. The data obtained indicate that the maser is unsaturated, and remained in this state up to the maximum observed flux densities. Additional support for the idea that the maser is unsaturated is the shape of the dependence of the line width on the flux. The characteristics of the variations of the spectral flux density are probably associated with a sharp increase in the density of the medium and the photon flux that led to an increase in the temperature from an initial level of 10–40 K to hundreds of Kelvins. Interferometric maps of the object during the increase in the spectral flux density of the flare have been obtained. A possible mechanism for the primary energy release in W49N is considered.

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Tsunami hazard assessment in the Hudson River Estuary based on dynamic tsunami–tide simulations     

Michael Shelby  Stéphan T. Grilli  Annette R. Grilli 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2016,173(12):3999-4037

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Importance sampling for efficient modelling of hydraulic loads in the Rhine–Meuse delta     

F. L. M. Diermanse  K. M. De Bruijn  J. V. L. Beckers  N. L. Kramer 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(3):637-652

During flood events, breaching of flood defences along a river system can have a significant reducing effect on downstream water levels and flood risks. This paper presents a Monte Carlo based flood risk framework for policy decision making, which takes this retention effect into account. The framework is developed to estimate societal flood risk in terms of potential numbers of fatalities and associated probabilities. It is tested on the Rhine–Meuse delta system in the Netherlands, where floods can be caused by high flows in the Rhine and Meuse rivers and/or high sea water levels in the North Sea. Importance sampling is applied in the Monte Carlo procedure to increase computational efficiency of the flood risk computations. This paper focuses on the development and testing of efficient importance sampling strategies for the framework. The development of an efficient importance sampling strategy for river deltas is more challenging than for non-tidal rivers where only discharges are relevant, because the relative influence of river discharge and sea water level on flood levels differs from location to location. As a consequence, sampling methods that are efficient and accurate for one location may be inefficient for other locations or, worse, may introduce errors in computed design water levels. Nevertheless, in the case study described in this paper the required simulation time was reduced by a factor 100 after the introduction of an efficient importance sampling method in the Monte Carlo framework, while at the same time the accuracy of the Monte Carlo estimates were improved.  相似文献   

Meteorology and oceanography of the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean—a review of German achievements from the last decade     

Hartmut H. Hellmer  Monika Rhein  Günther Heinemann  Janna Abalichin  Wafa Abouchami  Oliver Baars  Ulrich Cubasch  Klaus Dethloff  Lars Ebner  Eberhard Fahrbach  Martin Frank  Gereon Gollan  Richard J. Greatbatch  Jens Grieger  Vladimir M. Gryanik  Micha Gryschka  Judith Hauck  Mario Hoppema  Oliver Huhn  Torsten Kanzow  Boris P. Koch  Gert König-Langlo  Ulrike Langematz  Gregor C. Leckebusch  Christof Lüpkes  Stephan Paul  Annette Rinke  Bjoern Rost  Michiel Rutgers van der Loeff  Michael Schröder  Gunther Seckmeyer  Torben Stichel  Volker Strass  Ralph Timmermann  Scarlett Trimborn  Uwe Ulbrich  Celia Venchiarutti  Ulrike Wacker  Sascha Willmes  Dieter Wolf-Gladrow 《Ocean Dynamics》2016,66(11):1379-1413

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Quantification of Long-Range Persistence in Geophysical Time Series: Conventional and Benchmark-Based Improvement Techniques     

Annette Witt  Bruce D. Malamud 《Surveys in Geophysics》2013,34(5):541-651

Time series in the Earth Sciences are often characterized as self-affine long-range persistent, where the power spectral density, S, exhibits a power-law dependence on frequency, f, S(f) ~ f ^?β , with β the persistence strength. For modelling purposes, it is important to determine the strength of self-affine long-range persistence β as precisely as possible and to quantify the uncertainty of this estimate. After an extensive review and discussion of asymptotic and the more specific case of self-affine long-range persistence, we compare four common analysis techniques for quantifying self-affine long-range persistence: (a) rescaled range (R/S) analysis, (b) semivariogram analysis, (c) detrended fluctuation analysis, and (d) power spectral analysis. To evaluate these methods, we construct ensembles of synthetic self-affine noises and motions with different (1) time series lengths N = 64, 128, 256, …, 131,072, (2) modelled persistence strengths β _model = ?1.0, ?0.8, ?0.6, …, 4.0, and (3) one-point probability distributions (Gaussian, log-normal: coefficient of variation c _v = 0.0 to 2.0, Levy: tail parameter a = 1.0 to 2.0) and evaluate the four techniques by statistically comparing their performance. Over 17,000 sets of parameters are produced, each characterizing a given process; for each process type, 100 realizations are created. The four techniques give the following results in terms of systematic error (bias = average performance test results for β over 100 realizations minus modelled β) and random error (standard deviation of measured β over 100 realizations): (1) Hurst rescaled range (R/S) analysis is not recommended to use due to large systematic errors. (2) Semivariogram analysis shows no systematic errors but large random errors for self-affine noises with 1.2 ≤ β ≤ 2.8. (3) Detrended fluctuation analysis is well suited for time series with thin-tailed probability distributions and for persistence strengths of β ≥ 0.0. (4) Spectral techniques perform the best of all four techniques: for self-affine noises with positive persistence (β ≥ 0.0) and symmetric one-point distributions, they have no systematic errors and, compared to the other three techniques, small random errors; for anti-persistent self-affine noises (β < 0.0) and asymmetric one-point probability distributions, spectral techniques have small systematic and random errors. For quantifying the strength of long-range persistence of a time series, benchmark-based improvements to the estimator predicated on the performance for self-affine noises with the same time series length and one-point probability distribution are proposed. This scheme adjusts for the systematic errors of the considered technique and results in realistic 95 % confidence intervals for the estimated strength of persistence. We finish this paper by quantifying long-range persistence (and corresponding uncertainties) of three geophysical time series—palaeotemperature, river discharge, and Auroral electrojet index—with the three representing three different types of probability distribution—Gaussian, log-normal, and Levy, respectively.  相似文献   

Simultaneous Determination of 11 Sulfonamides by HPLC–UV and Application for Fast Screening of Their Aerobic Elimination and Biodegradation in a Simple Test     

Waleed M. M. Mahmoud  Nareman D. H. Khaleel  Ghada M. Hadad  Randa A. Abdel‐Salam  Annette Haiß  Klaus Kümmerer 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2013,41(9):907-916

Sulfonamides (SAs) are one of the most frequently used antibiotics. SAs have been found in various environmental compartments. If SAs are not degraded in the environment, they can affect bacteria by their antibiotic properties and contribute to bacterial antibiotic resistance. Therefore, the biodegradability of 11 SAs (sulfanilamide, sulfaguanidine monohydrate, sulfadiazine, sulfathiazole, sulfapyridine, sulfamerazine, sulfamethoxypyridazine, sulfachloropyridazine, sulfamethazine, sulfamethoxazole, and sulfadimethoxine) was studied. For this purpose, the Closed Bottle Test (CBT, OECD 301D) was performed, which includes a toxicity control. In order to monitor the environmental fate of the parent compound and to check for transformation products, a simple, efficient, and reliable HPLC–UV method for the simultaneous determination of these SAs has been developed. Acetonitrile and water (with 0.1% formic acid) were used as mobile phase solvents for gradient elution. The method was validated in terms of precision, detection and quantitation limits, selectivity, and analytical solution stability. In the CBT, none of these SAs was readily biodegradable. The HPLC–UV analysis confirmed that no degradation of any SA took place. In the toxicity control, these SAs showed no toxic effect in the used concentration of environmental bacteria applied in the test.  相似文献   

A wetting and drying algorithm with a combined pressure/free-surface formulation for non-hydrostatic models     

S.W. Funke  C.C. Pain  S.C. Kramer  M.D. Piggott 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(11):1483-1495

A wetting and drying method for free-surface problems for the three-dimensional, non-hydrostatic Navier–Stokes equations is proposed. The key idea is to use a horizontally fixed mesh and to apply different boundary conditions on the free-surface in wet and dry zones. In wet areas a combined pressure/free-surface kinematic boundary condition is applied, while in dry areas a positive water level and a no-normal flow boundary condition are enforced. In addition, vertical mesh movement is performed to accurately represent the free-surface motion. Non-physical flow in the remaining thin layer in dry areas is naturally prevented if a Manning–Strickler bottom drag is used. The treatment of the wetting and drying processes applied through the boundary condition yields great flexibility to the discretisation used. Specifically, a fully unstructured mesh with any finite element choice and implicit time discretisation method can be applied. The resulting method is mass conservative, stable and accurate. It is implemented within Fluidity-ICOM [1] and verified against several idealized test cases and a laboratory experiment of the Okushiri tsunami.  相似文献   

Factors influencing willingness to participate in disaster reduction     

Xiaofeng Luo  Annette E. Levi 《Natural Hazards》2013,66(2):1243-1255

This research is based on a questionnaire of 556 peasant households in the Jianghan Plain. By analyzing the rate of participation of peasant households using a participation model, this study intends to explain the peasant household’s willingness to participate in disaster reduction and factors that influence willingness to participate. The investigation of participation rate revealed that households are generally concerned about engineering measures used for disaster reduction, but the willingness to participate is not strong; the peasant household’s attention to recommendations for non-engineering disaster reduction is high, but the willingness to participate is very low. The quantitative analysis of the participation model of disaster reduction showed that the level of peasant household’s willingness to participate in engineering and non-engineering disaster reduction was dependent upon their attitude toward a variety of measures of risk and the input costs of disaster reduction. The cognition of a disaster’s impact, fertility level of farmland, condition of irrigation canals, and amount of arable land have a remarkable influence on the willingness to participate in engineering and non-engineering disaster reduction. Age of household and joining cooperating organizations do not influence the willingness to participate in engineering and non-engineering disaster reduction. On the other hand, the education level, professional skills, and family size influence on one dimension of disaster reduction, but do not influence another dimension of disaster reduction.  相似文献   

Vegetation patterns and diversity along an altitudinal and a grazing gradient in the Jabal al Akhdar mountain range of northern Oman   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Katja Brinkmann  Annette Patzelt  Uta Dickhoefer  Eva Schlecht  Andreas Buerkert 《Journal of Arid Environments》2009,73(11):1035-1045

Little is known about the effects of grazing on vegetation composition on the Arabian Peninsula. The aim of this study therefore was to analyse the vegetation response to environmental conditions of open woodlands along an altitudinal and a grazing gradient in the Jabal al Akhdar mountain range of Oman. The species composition, vegetation structure, grazing damage and several environmental variables were investigated for 62 samples using a nested plot design. Classification analysis and a Canonical Variate Analysis (CVA) were used to define vegetation types and to identify underlying environmental gradients. The relationship between environmental variables and diversity was analysed using correlation coefficients and a main-effects ANOVA. The plant species richness followed a unimodal distribution along the altitudinal gradient with the highest number of species at the intermediate altitudinal belt. The cluster analysis led to five vegetation groups: The Sideroxylon mascatense–Dodonaea viscosa group on grazed and the Olea europaea–Fingerhuthia africana group on ungrazed plateau sites at 2000 m a.s.l., the Ziziphus spina-christi–Nerium oleander group at wadi sites and the Moringa peregrina–Pteropyrum scoparium group at 1200 m a.s.l, and the Acacia gerrardii–Leucas inflata group at 1700 m a.s.l. The CVA indicated a clear distinction of the groups obtained by the agglomerative cluster analysis. The landform, altitude and grazing intensity were found to be the most important variables distinguishing between clusters. Overgrazing of the studied rangeland is an increasing environmental problem, whereas the plant composition at ungrazed sites pointed to a relatively fast and high regeneration potential of the local vegetation.  相似文献   

Riverine large wood and recreation safety: A framework to discretize and contextualize hazard     

Will Conley  Natalie Kramer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):2201-2216

The importance of large wood (LW) to riverine functions is well established scientifically and increasingly recognized by river managers in many countries. However, public perceptions largely associate LW with elevated danger and/or need for intervention. Such perspectives are amplified amongst recreational river users (defined here as any individuals that recreate by floating on the water surface of a river) who interact more directly with rivers than the general public and commonly view wood in life-or-death terms. Given that human life occupies a highest-order charge for river managers, they are left in a difficult position when safety appears to conflict with environmental services. LW deficits are perpetuated partly because wood removal, often in the name of safety, is far easier than placing wood in rivers. Further, river restoration practitioners are frequently burdened with expectations and liability unparalleled in built environments. A fundamentally different mindset is necessary to achieve desired ecologic outcomes when working with rivers. Based on two decades of experience as boaters, LW practitioners, and emergency responders, we (1) discuss LW hazard and risk from recreational and management viewpoints, (2) discretize objective and measurable physical properties of LW hazards, and (3) propose a decision framework that implicitly addresses risk by considering LW hazards relative to river use and ambient hazards. The approach is structured to increase objectivity in LW hazard mitigation and diminish asymmetric biases that favor LW removal. Our intent is to build understanding and rational flexibility among risk-averse management, regulatory, and funding entities to facilitate implementation of scientific understanding without undue risk to river users. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献